Has the Turkish model collapsed?

There is no better place than Gaziantep to discuss Turkey's future role in the wave of changes that have been wreaking havoc on seemingly indestructible regimes in the Middle East. Indeed, the southeastern province of Turkey is right next door to Syria, a country that is expected to make a very large impact on Turkey with its political earthquake.

Like a mirror, Gaziantep is faithfully reflecting the situation on the other side of the Turkish-Syrian border. To discuss the Arab Spring in İstanbul would be very abstract and theoretical, but it is a very real exercise in Gaziantep. With the abolition of visa requirements, making the boundary that separated Aleppo and Gaziantep completely meaningless, Gaziantep saw an explosion in Turkish-Syrian relations one year ago. Every month, the city received some 60,000 Syrian tourists. The whole city was teeming with cars carrying Syrian license plates. This proved particularly gratifying for the artisans and businesses in the city. They sold parcels or bags, not kilograms, of pistachios, peppers and Turkish sweets.

The revolution that overthrew governments in three countries before it hit Syria was being called a “spring,” but if we were to ask the people of Gaziantep, who were suffering from its negative effects, they would prefer to call it a “fall.” As a matter of fact, the number of Syrian tourists declined steeply to 3,000. On the day we journalists went to Gaziantep, Syria decided to close down its consulate in the city. Despite the loss of income suffered by shopkeepers, this city -- which produces 90 percent of Turkey's rugs and carpets and showcases numerous trademarks and big businesses -- can find consolation in the fact that Syria has a relatively small share in the city's foreign exports. Iraq receives 38 percent of the city's exports. Overall, the Middle Eastern countries enjoy 55 percent of Gaziantep's foreign trade. Still many expressed doubts, asking whether Turkey acted too hastily in severing ties with the Baath leader, Bashar al-Assad. The Syrian people with whom journalists spoke expressed similar views. Some Syrians even perceived Turkey's moves as intervention in Syria's internal affairs. A significant portion of Sunnis believed that the Assad regime would not be overthrown so easily.

For the future of Turkey's role in the process of regional change, it would be very beneficial to take into consideration some of the views and sentiments highlighted during this year's Abant Platform, a forum that was first held during the 1998 Journalists and Writers Foundation near Lake Abant.

1. Having overthrown the seemingly invincible dictators, Arabs have developed an extreme sense of self-confidence and emotionality. This sense is particularly important for reclaiming political change from the remnants of oppressive regimes or destructive foreign forces. However, this self-confidence should not disappoint or exclude actors such as Turkey, which has recently developed an interest in the region. As I observed, the critical remarks and emotional reactions voiced by Arabs against Turkey reminded many Turks the old Turkish cliche, “I'd be better off with no candy from Damascus if I would have to see Arab faces.” Yet, it is important that Turkey should maintain its interest in the region.
2. Given the high interest in the Turkish experience, who can argue that Turkey has nothing to give to the region? However, Turkey should take pains to avoid mentioning leadership and trying to serve as a model to the region, particularly at this time when sentimentalism is peaking. Instead, Turkey should adopt modesty as its main guiding principle. It is the Arabs who performed the revolution and who will build their own future.
3. Unless they change their positions, Iran and Israel are doomed to be left outside the process of change. Today, no one is referring to Khomeini's Islamic revolution or Iran's role in the current process of change.
4. What the founder of international polling company Zogby had said one week ago was repeated by some participants: Turkey should not invest high hopes in sympathy from people on the streets. Those who carry your posters today may tear them down tomorrow.
5. Turkey has raised the bar too high regarding expectations from itself. Syria is a test case of this.
6. The Arab world is not a homogenous ocean. Each country has its unique historical experiences. Turkey's ability to comprehend these diversities is dubious.
7. The stance adopted by Western powers is important for the future of the region, but the internal conflicts such as those between Shiites and Sunnis or between Kurds and Arabs are equally important. Major regional actors must reach an agreement on a minimum number of principles for a free and peaceful Middle East, as was the case with the Helsinki process.
8. Tahrir's message was to focus on internal problems for the time being by leaving aside Israel, the US and foreign powers. This stance should be maintained for the success of all revolutions.