Why Turkey is for ‘regime change’ in Syria
Changes in the Middle East that were triggered last year by the Tunisian revolution are continuing to shake the region. The Abant Platform this weekend organized a conference titled “The Future of the Middle East after the Arab Spring,” which has the aim of understanding what this means for the world at large as well as for the region. The roots of the revolutionary changes, its processes and its implications were thoroughly debated with the participation of a range of academics and journalists from the Middle East and the West.
Among the topics debated was the situation in Syria and Turkey’s policy towards it. I think there is confusion about Turkey’s Syria policy. The most expressed criticism raised against the Turkish government was its ever changing policy towards the Assad regime. Only last year the two countries were closely cooperating, building personal ties among its top leaders and holding joint cabinet meetings. Now, critics say, Turkey and Syria are on the verge of conflict.
I think we should be fair. What the Turkish government was trying to do was to help Syria materialize political and economic transformation gradually and in an orderly way. Well before the start of the Arab Spring the Turkish government had been engaging with the Syrian regime to integrate it in international economic and political structures, despite some opposition by its Western allies.
This was the policy by Ankara simply because it was not a secret that Syria, as a neighboring country with a very long shared land border and a fragmented domestic social structure, could become a headache for Turkey if it unraveled during radical changes. So Turkey, by engaging with Syria early on, tried to influence a slow, gradual and orderly change so as to avoid the potential spillover effects of a radical shake up in Syria.
When demonstrations started in Syria in March of this year against the Assad regime, the Turkish government was initially optimistic that the regime would respond to the demands of its people by introducing broad reforms. The Turkish side believed Bashar al-Assad would take the advice offered by Turkey seriously and meet the demands of the people. But to the contrary, the regime resisted and blamed the people.
Now that demands for change are knocking at Damascus’ door and the regime is killing thousands of its own people, the very security and stability of Turkey is also being threatened. The Turkish government could not remain indifferent to this and so it called on Assad to step down and later worked together with the Arab League and the EU to impose sanctions on Syria.
This is to say that Turkey, in cooperation with Arab countries and the West, has come forward with a “regime change” in Syria. It will not be easy, of course. But what will also not be easy is maintaining the regime in Syria.
It is safe to argue that unless the regime is changed in Syria, the relationship between the two countries will not be normalized. Not only will the relationship with Syria not be rehabilitated unless Assad is gone, but neither will that with Iran.
The Iranian dimension is important. Turkey is rightly concerned about possible social chaos and civil strife and its spillover into Turkey. But this is not the whole story: I think Turkey is also worried about Iran’s rising influence in the region. The regime in Tehran will maximize its political, social and religious influence in the aftermath of a total withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. In Syria it is clear that Iran is its only ally in the region, and this means it currently exercises a broad influence on the Syrian government. It is obvious that Iran regards Syria as being at the frontline facing Western and regional pressures. If Syria falls, Iran will be next. So the Iranian government, in supporting the Assad regime, is in fact fighting for its own future.
In this context, I think Turkey feels surrounded by an Iranian zone of influence. To break the Iranian containment, a key strategic movement for the Turkish government is a regime change in Syria that can diminish this Iranian influence.
The Iranian influence on Syria cuts Turkey off from its southern gateway to the Arab world. Establishing economic, social and cultural networks with Arab countries is very important in Turkey’s new foreign policy. This cannot be expanded without a cooperative regime in Syria. So for Turkey to reach out to the Arab world and free itself from this Iranian containment, the Assad regime must be changed. The big question is, how will this be achieved?
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